Conditioning the President's Conditional Pardon Power

Presidential Power Unbound: A Comparative Look at Presidential Pardon Power

Though few scholars compare presidencies, a recent collection by John Carey and Matthew Shugart (1998) compares the use of the presidential executive decree power in several countries. In a similar vein, we examine the oft-neglected power of the presidential pardon in the United States and Russia. The power of presidents to grant pardons is typically unlimited, which fact alone makes it worthwh...

Underwriting the presidents.

The United States has had 43 presidents. We examined whether they survive significantly longer or shorter than their contemporaries. We found that survival was better for presidents elected in the 1789-1841 and 1933-2001 periods (SMRs of 0.7 and 0.6, respectively), but worse for those elected in 1845-1929 (SMR = 2.9). We also found increased mortality during the years lived in office (SMR = 1.4...

Presidents, Vice Presidents, and Death: Closing the Constitution's Succession Gap

Conditional limit theorems under Markov conditioning

Ahtract -Let Xi, X, , . be independent identically distributed random variables taking values in a finite set X and consider the conditional joint distribution of the first m elements of the sample Xt; . ., X, on the condition that A’, = x, and the sliding block sample average of a function h( ., .) defined on X2 exceeds a threshold OL > Eh( Xt, X2). For m fixed and M + co, this conditional joi...

Conditioning using conditional expectations: the Borel-Kolmogorov Paradox

The Borel-Kolmogorov Paradox is typically taken to highlight a tension between our intuition that certain conditional probabilities with respect to probability zero conditioning events are well defined and the mathematical definition of conditional probability by Bayes’ formula, which looses its meaning when the conditioning event has probability zero. We argue in this paper that the theory of ...